What Does the Volatility Index VIX Indicate?

VIX values are calculated using the CBOE-traded standard SPX options, which expire on the third Friday of each month, and the weekly SPX options, which expire on all other Fridays. Only SPX options are considered whose expiry period lies within more than 23 days and less than 37 days. Since option prices are available in the open market, they can be used to derive the volatility of the underlying security.

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It is important to note that extreme levels of the VIX are rarely sustained for long periods of time, and the index tends to revert to its mean. The predictive nature of the VIX makes it a measure of implied volatility, not one that is based on historical data or statistical analysis. One of the most popular and accessible of these is the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY), which is based on VIX futures contracts with a 30-day maturity. Some exchange-traded securities let you speculate on implied volatility up to six months in the future, such as the iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ), which invests in VIX futures with four- to seven-month maturities. There are a range of different securities based on the CBOE Volatility Index that provide investors with exposure to the VIX.

When the VIX declines, investors are betting there will be smaller price moves up or down in the S&P 500, which implies calmer markets and less uncertainty. Downside risk can be adequately hedged by buying put options, the price of which depends on market volatility. Astute investors tend to buy options when the VIX is relatively low and put premiums are cheap.

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1. The VIX is considered a reflection of investor sentiment and has in the past been a leading indicator of a dip in the S&P 500, but that relationship may have changed in recent times.
2. Traders should carefully consider their risk tolerance and have a thorough understanding of the products they are trading before engaging in volatility trading strategies.
3. When the VIX is high, indicating increased volatility, traders may consider selling options to generate income.
4. The higher the VIX, the greater the level of fear and uncertainty in the market, with levels above 30 indicating tremendous uncertainty.
5. In addition to VIX options, various VIX-based exchange-traded products (ETPs) exist that track the price action of the index itself and/or some combination of its futures — whether directly, inversely or in a leveraged manner.

That much is understood by most investors, but what exactly is volatility and how is it measured for the overall stock market? You may have seen references to something called the VIX, an index that measures volatility, during times of extreme financial stress. In August 2024, the VIX jumped above 60, a level not seen since the market meltdown in the initial stages of COVID-19 in March 2020, as worries grow about a possible recession.

Making Investment Decisions Based on the VIX

If implied volatility is high, the premium on options will be high and vice versa. Generally speaking, rising option premiums, if we assume all other variables remain constant, reflect a rising expectation of future volatility of the underlying stock index, which represents higher implied volatility levels. When investors trade options, they are essentially placing bets on where they think the price of a specific security will go. In many cases, large institutional investors will use options trading to hedge their current positions. So, if the big firms on Wall Street are anticipating an upswing or downswing in the broader market, they may try to hedge against that volatility by placing options trades. If many of the large investment firms are anticipating the same thing, there is usually a spike in options trading for the S&P 500.

Figure 1 shows the VIX, in the summer of 2003, flirting with extreme lows, dipping to near or below 20. A look https://forexanalytics.info/ at Figure 2 should be an eye-opener, as it shows that each time the VIX has declined below 20, a major sell-off has taken place shortly after. As the VIX is breaking below 20 in Figure 1, it indicates that the investment crowd is extremely complacent about the current outlook, having little reason to worry. Before investing in any VIX exchange-traded products, you should understand some of the issues that can come with them. Certain VIX-based ETNs and ETFs have less liquidity than you’d expect from more familiar exchange traded securities. ETNs in particular can be less liquid and more difficult to trade as well as may carry higher fees.

When the VIX moves lower, investors may view this as a sign the index is reverting to the mean, with the period of greater volatility soon to end. Volatility is one of the primary factors that affect stock and index options’ prices and premiums. As the VIX is the most widely watched measure of broad market volatility, it has a substantial impact on option prices or premiums. A higher VIX means higher prices for options (i.e., more expensive option premiums) while a lower VIX means lower option prices or cheaper premiums.

Options and futures based on VIX products are available for trading on CBOE and CFE platforms, respectively. Since the possibility of such price moves happening within the given time frame is represented by the volatility factor, various option pricing methods (like the Black-Scholes model) include volatility as an integral input parameter. When the VIX falls below 15, the market is less volatile, and very volatile at 40. The VIX around 9 is vulnerable to complacency, and at 40 the market could be bottoming. Many, or all, of the products featured on this page are from our advertising partners who compensate us when you take certain actions on our website or click to take an action on their website.

Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants. The VIX, which was first introduced in 1993, is sometimes called the “fear index” because it can be used by traders and investors to gauge market sentiment and see how fearful, or uncertain, the market is. It tends to rise during times the benefits of forex trading of market stress, making it an effective hedging tool for active traders. Though it can’t be invested in directly, you can purchase ETFs that track the VIX. When its level gets to 20 or higher, expectations are that volatility will be above normal over the coming weeks.

The VIX serves as a valuable indicator of expected volatility and market sentiment. By monitoring the VIX, investors can gain insights into market risk, fear, and the actions of institutional players. While the VIX alone does not determine investment returns, it can be a useful tool in developing investment strategies and managing risk. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, is a widely recognized measure of expected volatility in the US stock market. It is often referred to as the “fear gauge” as it reflects investors’ perception of market risk and fear.

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The higher the VIX, the greater the level of fear and uncertainty in the market, with levels above 30 indicating tremendous uncertainty. It then started using a wider set of options based on the broader S&P 500 Index, an expansion that allows for a more accurate view of investors’ expectations of future market volatility. A methodology was adopted that remains in effect and is also used for calculating various other variants of the volatility index. Given the differing factors driving the day-to-day action in each index, VIX and SPX are generally expected to maintain an inverse correlation with one another. First introduced by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) in 1993, the initial version of the VIX reflected a rolling 30-day calculation of at-the-money implied volatility (IV) on S&P 100 Index (OEX) options.

During periods of market turmoil, the VIX spikes higher, largely reflecting the panic demand for OEX puts as a hedge against further declines in stock portfolios. During bullish periods, there is less fear and, therefore, less need for portfolio managers to purchase puts. Perhaps the most straightforward way to invest in the VIX is with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs) based on VIX futures. As exchange-traded products, you can buy and sell these securities like stocks, greatly simplifying your VIX investing strategy. For people watching the VIX index, it’s understood that the S&P 500 stands in for “the stock market” or “the market” as a whole. When the VIX index moves higher, this reflects the fact that professional investors are responding to more price volatility in the S&P 500 in particular and markets more generally.